Episode 45

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Published on:

19th Dec 2021

45 democrats fail, rising interest rates

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big idea: dems botch their big spending bill

  1. Joe finally admitted late this week that his big $2 trillion social policy and climate change bill would not pass by the end of the year, possibly dooming his signature “Build Back Better” campaign promise. for the past several months, Joe and senate leadership have insisted that the bill would be passed before christmas, but alas, the Grinch has stolen it. and when we say Grinch, we mean Joe Manchin of course, the most conservative dem in the senate.
  2. Manchin is taking issue with the overall price tag of the bill, and specifically seems to be targeting the child tax credit. that $600 per month per child check to most families costs a lot, and was originally passed as a temporary COVID stimulus measure, which progressive democrats wanted to make permanent. this impasse comes even after days of private negotiations between the two Joes, though to be honest we’re surprised either of them have the intact mental capacity for such prolonged thought…
  3. dems need unanimous support within their party in the senate to pass anything, so expect to see continued drama over this, immigration, and election rights well into the new year

story to watch: rising interest rates here, but not across the pond

  1. the Fed announced this week that it plans on hiking interest rates three times next year, beginning in march. they are also more rapidly than previously anticipated ending stimulus measures they began at the start of the pandemic. this all comes amid better than expected jobs growth and higher than expected spikes in the cost of consumer goods and inflation. generally speaking, raising interest rates tends to slow down the economy and inflation.
  2. of note, the Fed chair only announced his reversal on interest rates after he was reappointed to another term by Joe, which gave him some capital to spend on this politically unpopular move. more likely though, the Fed is realizing that the pandemic permanently shrunk the american labor force, which will force it to maintain higher interest rates than in the past, even if there’s the same level of economic growth.
  3. just after the Fed made its announcement, the European Central Bank (the Fed’s equivalent in the eurozone) came out and said they would not be raising interest rates at all next year, and would be continuing its stimulus measures. this would probably be an appropriate time to mention what the Bank of England has going on, but ever since Brexit, we just can’t seem to care at all what the british are up to…
  4. anyways, while europe and the US are in different phases of their recoveries, it’s clear that the world’s top economists can’t agree on the next appropriate steps. some parts of the eurozone are facing inflation rates not seen since in generations, yet interest rates will still remain low. 

this week’s image: the show must go on

  • (The Guardian) the interior of a theater in kentucky was spared destruction by deadly tornadoes, while its outside was…not so lucky

what we’re reading: “American Crisis”

  1. just kidding, of course we didn’t actually read this unfit-for-a-compost-pile excuse of a book, written by now disgraced new york governor Andrew Cuomo. he supposedly wrote it in the midst of the pandemic last year, though it’s come out that he made staffers put it together. that last bit is important - an ethics board has demanded that he forfeit the over $5 million he made off sales to new york state for misusing governmental resources.
  2. it doesn’t really seem like the ethics board has the ability to seize that money, but Cuomo is still facing criminal charges for sexual misconduct while in office. so please, don’t go out and buy this book, but do feel free to revel in its author’s current misery.

and, in case you missed it:

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the weekly rundown
briefly putting the previous week’s political & business news into context, helping you better understand why they matter <br/><br/><a href="https://theweeklyrundown.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast">theweeklyrundown.substack.com</a>
the weekly rundown is a brief sunday morning newsletter putting the previous week's political & business news into context and helping you understand why they matter. we’ll explain big ideas, emerging trends, and overlooked stories.

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